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Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T01:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-29 06:54
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-29 04:38
 - Radial speed: 1481.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 54 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 850.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-31 01:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 45.23 hours)
Lead Time: 60.30 hour(s)
Difference: 27.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-29T17:00Z
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